|Dew Point:||69.8°F (21.0°C)|
|Wind:||From the WNW at 8.0 MPH Gusting to 8.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.19" (1022.2 mb)|
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 78 Low: 66
Showers And Thunderstorms LikelyHigh: 80 Low: 66
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 78 Low: 66
Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 82 Low: 68
Slight Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 83 Low: 68
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain showers before 10am, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Southwest wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. West wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. West wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 83.
... The remnants of Barry will produce periods of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday morning. Downpours can be expected. Hot and humid weather continues to be forecast Friday through the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The main change with the early afternoon update was to reduce pops across the area. The warm front is across central Pennsylvania at this point, and am not sure there's going to be a widespread trigger for precipitation other than differential convective heating. Even that could be hard with the amount of cloud cover still present. Previous discussion follows.
Marginal CAPE, moistening aloft, and weak shear will limit severe/downdraft potential today. However, can't rule out an isolated flash flood threat given PWAT values expected to be roughly 2 standard deviations above normal, but fast enough storm motion will limit the threat.
Convection will generally dissipate during the evening hours with the loss of heating causing a more stable environment. The approach of low pressure associated with Hurricane Barry remnants will keep a swath of showers/thunderstorms persistent overnight with its increasing lift, but the focus should remain west and north of the forecast area.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The remnant low will move from Indiana toward the east coast Wednesday with an attendant sfc low/cold front moving through the region. Given the increased lift, shear, and a warm/moist environment, more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expecting during the day Wednesday. Models seem to agree that convection will start earlier enough to limit instability potential, and thus the overall severe weather threat. Flash flooding will be the primary threat given PWAT values in excess of two standard deviations above normal and the potential for training of storms before the cold front moves southeast during the evening/overnight hours. Confidence too low for any watch issuance at this time, but this bears monitoring going forward.
Drier NW flow will work in behind this exiting low Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before weak ridging develops by the afternoon. Hot and humid conditions will return as a result, with above normal high temperature expected. Enough heating and residual moisture should break a warm layer cap and allow for storms along the ridges and south of I-70 Thursday afternoon.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Heat Index Values Near 100 Degrees Friday and Saturday...
Southeast U.S. ridging will persist into the weekend with the upper Ohio River Valley along its northern periphery, keeping a hot and humid environment in place. Confidence remains fairly high for heat indices reaching advisory criteria Friday and Saturday, but will remain stated in HWO for now.
A few weak disturbances will attempt to break down the ridge through Saturday, giving spotty thunderstorms chances for both Friday and Saturday. A more notable upper level trough will fully break down the ridge by the start of next week, bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm chances with it. The passage of this trough and its sfc cold front will usher and end to the hot/humid weather preceding it.