|Dew Point:||38.9°F (3.8°C)|
|Wind:||From the South at 5.0 MPH Gusting to 10.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.15" (1020.9 mb)|
Mostly SunnyHigh: 70 Low: 59
Partly Sunny then Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 74 Low: 58
Chance Rain Showers then Mostly SunnyHigh: 70 Low: 57
Chance Rain Showers then Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 77 Low: 61
Chance Rain Showers then Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 74 Low: 59
Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Southeast wind around 12 mph.
A slight chance of rain showers between 10pm and midnight, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between midnight and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. South wind around 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A slight chance of rain showers between noon and 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Southwest wind 12 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. West wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
A chance of rain showers before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. West wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain showers after 4am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. Chance of precipitation is 20%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of rain showers before 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A chance of rain showers before 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
... Rain chances return late today as a weak upper level wave moves through. A better chance for showers and storms on Thursday with a crossing cold front.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Most of the day looks dry and warm with a building ridge aloft and surface high pressure. A weak upper level wave will hit strong resistance late this afternoon and evening as it bangs into ongoing height rises over the region. Have pulled back on PoPs late this afternoon/evening and kept thunder more isolated. Increased subsidence from the aforementioned ridge, and a capped atmosphere due to warm advection, will make it tough for any convection to develop. Forecast soundings show little instability, with most of that over Ohio. What upper level support does exist, will likely be used trying to halt the northward expansion of the Eastern CONUS ridge. Additionally, the area may not reach convective temperatures and surface dewpoints may be held down due to a more southeasterly flow.
A nice rebound in temperatures today.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Minor height falls are expected overnight and any showers that do develop will end quickly with a decrease in large scale ascension and deep moisture.
A better chance for convection will arrive on Thursday as a cold front approaches and slowly moves through the area. Seeing some timing and intensity differences between the models, mostly centered around the strength and timing of a shortwave trough. Have focused higher PoPs in the afternoon and evening as well as convection, using the cold front as a guide. Atmosphere does destabilize Thursday ahead of the front, but temperatures aloft remain rather warm until shortwave energy crosses. Forecast soundings are indicating the cap will hold until the cooler air aloft arrives. Much of the upper level energy will initially be used to flatten the ridge, but there will be enough left to drive the front through my CWA. There remain minor model differences in atmospheric destabilization Thursday afternoon, but all are still showing rather impressive buoyancy. Low-level lapse rates will increase as will wind shear values, which may lead to strong to severe storms ahead of the cold front. Pre- frontal cloud cover and showers will play a role, as the lack of full sun could prevent convective temps from being reached. There are some indications that all of the necessary ingredients will be more readily available over the southern half of the area late Thursday. If this holds, areas from PIT-south and east could be the focus for severe convection.
Front may get held up a bit Thursday evening as the shortwave trough energy evaporates and height falls slow. This will need to be monitored in future forecasts to allow for correct timing of the end of showers/storms over the south. All activity will end late Thursday night.
Rapid height rises are expected Friday as is another push of warm air. Will leave Friday dry due to the increase in subsidence, the development of a cap, thanks to the warm temperatures aloft, and stable lower levels.
Temperatures Friday should be close to late May normals.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The strength and position of the eastern ridge will be the driving factor for the long term weather. Ensemble data is in good agreement that the area will lie in the zonal flow just on the northern flank of the ridge. Precipitation will be driven by shortwave energy that moves through the upper flow and if this energy is able to push any surface boundaries through. It is possible that a weekend cold front could get held up near or over the area as it will be unable to move southward due to the strong ridge over the southeastern US. If this comes to fruition, the extended would likely portray an unsettled forecast, particularly by the end of the weekend and into early next week.