Canaan Valley Resort

Davis, WV

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY

Currently

Temperature 42°F
Feels Like 35.83°F
Humidity 30%
Pressure 1017mb
Wind 12.97mph from the WNW
Broken clouds 42°F Broken clouds
This Afternoon Mostly Sunny
High: 41°F Low: 32°F
Friday Slight Chance Snow Showers then Partly Sunny
High: 46°F Low: 39°F
Saturday Rain Showers Likely
High: 53°F Low: 44°F
Sunday Chance Rain Showers
High: 56°F Low: 45°F
Monday Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 60°F Low: 49°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... High pressure building over the Upper Ohio River Valley will bring seasonable temperatures and mainly dry weather through Friday. A series of low pressure systems are expected to bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Wednesday; hazardous weather may develop.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Cooler conditions are expected today in the wake a cold front. - Dry weather and clearing skies with building high pressure.

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Clouds are quickly eroding with building high pressure and diurnal mixing. The 12Z PIT sounding shows sufficient dry air above 3kft. With lingering cold air aloft (850mb temps ranging between -5C to -2C), high temperatures will likely stay in the upper-40s/near 50 degrees.

A series of vigorous shortwaves will traverse the western edge of the upper trough as the axis crosses the region this evening and overnight. The second of these waves may spawn a few light showers or sprinkles late tonight into Friday morning. Any precipitation that does fall will remain generally south of Pittsburgh and focused along the ridges with upslope flow. Given thermal profiles and limited moisture mostly below the DGZ, precipitation should mainly fall as light rain, through a few flakes and flurries are possible in the higher terrain. Accumulation (rain or snow) will be minimal and end Friday morning.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Outside of an isolated shower south of PGH, dry weather continues Friday. - Gradually warming daily temperatures are expected. - Gusty west to northwest winds expected over eastern Tucker County WV ridges Friday afternoon/evening -

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Any lingering light and isolated showers will end Friday morning as the shortwave exits and upper height rises begin. Plentiful sunshine and renewed warm advection will boost Friday afternoon high temperatures several degrees higher than Thursday.

As flow turns more westerly, models continue to show a 55-60kt mountain wave at 850 mb just east of Tucker County, WV Friday afternoon and evening. NBM probabilities for Advisory criteria (>40 knot gusts) has increased to 75-95% in eastern Tucker. Strongest gusts should remain downstream, but expect the ridges to get quite windy with 45 to 55 mph gusts likely at the Dolly Sods Mesonet site.

The upper ridge becomes more flattened with westerly flow aloft Friday night into Saturday. As the first of a series of shortwaves crosses the region, weak low pressure will shift out of the Midwest. Warm advection ahead of this feature will return widespread rain chances to the area by early Saturday morning. Shower coverage should gradually diminish Saturday evening into the overnight.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/..., so did not include in the TAF at this time. KEY MESSAGES:

- A series of weak low pressure systems will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for much of the period. - Above-average temperatures are expected. - Rainfall totals Saturday to Wednesday of 2-4 inches expected from Morgantown WV to Tucker County WV.

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A brief lull in rainfall is expected Sunday, in the wake of the low as the front drops south and stalls. Rainfall potential will depend on how far south the front stalls. For now, greatest PoPs (25-40%) remain south of Pittsburgh through the day.

The front is expected to lift northwards once again Sunday night and early Monday as warm advection renews. This will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms along and north of the west-east boundary Monday and Monday night.

As a phasing and deepening trough creates a deeper low on Tuesday, a more vigorous system closes out the wet period with cooler northwest flow expected by Wednesday as the low pushes east of area.

CSU MLP shows increasing severe risk Monday into Tuesday in the Ohio Valley. The excessive rain component also shows potential increasing Monday in the Ohio area for heavy rainfall. NBM has increasing probabilities of 2"+ over the northern WV portion of the forecast area and there is certainly concern for 2-4" of rain down in the Morgantown WV, Preston, and Tucker County areas for possible flooding or flash flooding issues. WPC now highlights the area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall on Monday (Day 5).

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