Canaan Valley Resort

Davis, WV

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY

Currently

Temperature 33°F
Feels Like 25.38°F
Humidity 72%
Pressure 1016mb
Wind 10.07mph from the WNW
Light snow 33°F Light snow
Overnight Scattered Snow Showers
Low: 45°F
Friday Scattered Snow Showers then Partly Sunny
High: 45°F Low: 40°F
Saturday Rain Showers Likely
High: 56°F Low: 44°F
Sunday Chance Rain Showers
High: 57°F Low: 47°F
Monday Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 61°F Low: 51°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Remaining rain and snow showers south of Pittsburgh will end this morning. Otherwise, building high pressure will result in dry weather through this evening. Low pressure will cross the region Saturday and Saturday night, with showers and a few thunderstorms. A series of crossing low pressure systems will bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the region later Sunday through Tuesday, with heavy rain and strong storms possible.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Weak shortwave exits this morning - Dry and seasonable weather the rest of the day

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A crossing shortwave trough will continue to support scattered rain showers for areas south of a PHD-HLG-LBE line early this morning. Areas across the higher terrain should see scattered snow showers with colder air in place, though any accumulation is expected to be less than an inch. There is a slight potential of a brief instance of light freezing rain in eastern Tucker county as the moisture depth decreases and exits the dendritic growth zone.

Otherwise, high pressure will build in behind the exiting shortwave, with dry weather expected. A tight pressure gradient and mixing should result in NW wind gusts from 25 to 30 mph today for most of the area. The higher terrain areas across eastern Tucker county WV could see gusts up to 50 mph, where the wind advisory remains in effect through 8 PM. High temperatures are expected to be within a couple of degrees of seasonable levels.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and isolated storms return late tonight and Saturday - Lull in precipitation later Saturday night through early Sunday morning - Warm front advancing north returns showers/storms later Sunday and Sunday night -------------------------------------------------------------------

A shortwave trough, and associated surface low pressure, will track out of the Central CONUS, approaching the Upper Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region late tonight. Showers will overspread the region with increasing moisture and ascent as the low tracks across the region. The region is also expected to be in the left front quadrant of an upper jet, enhancing the ascent. A rather fast progression of the low should help to limit rainfall amounts, with a quarter to a half inch expected.

SREF/HREF progs indicate the low will track across northern Ohio and NW PA. Limited instability south of the low could result in a few thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon. Gusty wind will be possible if any storms become organized with a strong wind field aloft and shear in place.

The low is expected to exit eastward Saturday night, as it pulls a surface cold front across the region. This front is then expected to stall across the Ohio Valley region late Saturday night, before lifting back northward later Sunday and Sunday night in advance of another surface low across the Midwest. A band of more significant rainfall is expected Sunday night as the front continues to advance northward. Elevated instability could also support scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and overnight, which would enhance precipitation rates. In addition, SPC has placed a portion of SE OH and northern WV in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, with moderate instability and increasing shear in the vicinity of the Sunday afternoon and evening.

The rainfall Saturday, and Sunday night, could set up a potential for flooding early in the week.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Potential for heavy rain and strong thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday with with a strong low pressure system - Colder and windy Wednesday and Thursday with rain and snow showers -------------------------------------------------------------------

The warm front is expected to stall across the Upper Ohio Valley region again on Monday as the flow aloft becomes parallel to the front. Heavy rain will be possible where the front stalls, though uncertainty exists in its exact location. Thunderstorms will also be possible, especially south of the front.

An upper trough is progged to advance out of the Midwest Monday. Southwest flow ahead of the trough should push the warm front northward Monday night. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected. A low level jet will also enhance rainfall rates, with elevated instability maintaining a few thunderstorms. This would bring an increased flood potential. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue Tuesday as the low tracks across the Lower Great Lakes region. Increasing shear and instability could result in a potential for strong to severe storms again on Tuesday.

The surface low is expected to become nearly stationary through Wednesday, as it pulls a cold front across the region. Cold advection behind the front, and a crossing upper low, will maintain rain and snow shower chances Wednesday and Thursday. The upper low should begin to exit the region late Thursday.

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