Canaan Valley Resort

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Severe thunderstorms are expected in Ohio tonight with showers and isolated severe thunderstorms spreading across the rest of the area late tonight. More showers and thunderstorms are expected early Thursday. Cooler and unsettled weather is expected this weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Severe storms are possible later this evening into early Wednesday morning. - Probabilities for severe weather are highest for our CWA across east-central Ohio. - All modes of severe weather (large hail, damaging wind, tornadoes, and flooding) are possible with these storms.

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Update... IR satellite and radar VIL loops indicate the band of showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms across the region will continue to weaken as it tracks eastward early this evening. Latest mesoanalysis shows flat upper level ridging across the Upper Ohio Valley region, resulting in the diminishing trend of the showers.

As mentioned in the previous discussion below, the severe weather potential will increase later this evening as shear and instability increases, and a prefrontal trough approaches.

Previous discussion... Occluded front approaching area will bring a surge of higher theta-e air into Ohio with strengthening deep moisture transport. Initial weakening band of thunderstorms in south central Ohio will advance east late this afternoon and gradually weaken.

Of more significance will be severe storms developing in Illinois and Indiana and advancing across Ohio later this evening. It appears that strong warm advection will keep things active until after midnight and elevated CAPE values of 500-1000 j/kg with highest values in Ohio. Significant Severe values up to 30,000 are expected this evening into east central Ohio, supporting severe thunderstorms including supercells well into the evening.

The main activity is not expected to move into Ohio portions of the forecast area until 9 or 10 pm, and then spread into PA and WV after midnight. Hail appears to be the primary threat, but damaging winds and tornadoes can't be ruled out especially over western half of forecast area given the potent looking soundings well into the evening hours over Ohio. Overall flash flood threat is low but locally intense rainfalls are expected.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Brief ridging will allow for dry weather with sunshine on Wednesday. - Additional storms are possible late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, but highest severe probabilities are well south of the forecast area.

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Weak ridging brings quiet weather on Wednesday into Wednesday night. However another trough with 50 to 70 meter height falls pushes a low pressure area up Ohio Valley with a surge of warm advection showers and thunderstorms. While these could be severe, odds favor the strong instability to be well south of forecast area.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Ensembles suggest a wet pattern into the weekend. - Cooler temperatures arrive by late week with highs in the 60s this weekend. -------------------------------------------------------------------

Strong height falls on Friday usher in a cooler pattern with a long wave trough position in the east. Showers are likely on a daily basis into the weekend but especially on Saturday as a 100 meter height fall center pushes across Ohio in the afternoon.

Temperatures Friday through Sunday will be 5-10 degrees below the seasonal normal of about 70 this time of year.

Some moderation of temperatures is likely Monday and Tuesday as heights rise and flow turns from northwest to more westerly, though there is a possibility of another trough dropping over the northeast on Tuesday keeping things a bit cooler than currently forecast.